Production of Winter Strategic Agricultural Crops in Iraq and the Factors Affecting Them for the Period (2004-2021) and Future Expectations for the Volume of their Production Until the Year (2031)

Abstract

These crops suffer from fluctuation in the quantities of production, cultivated areas, and average yield productivity, especially after (2003), and this is due to many factors that affected the production of strategic winter agricultural crops (wheat and barley). Analytical and standard method for measuring production volume and estimating the production functions of strategic agricultural crops in Iraq for the period (2004-2021) , and future expectations for the volume of production of those crops, as this research dealt with two axes. The first axis included the reality of strategic agricultural crop production in Iraq and the factors affecting it for the period (2004-2021) As for the second axis, it dealt with estimating and measuring the functions of producing strategic agricultural crops in Iraq for the period (2004-2021) and their future expectations for the period (2022-2023), through the use of the standard model (Eveiws12) for a set of tests during which the researcher dealt with a quarterly series of (24) View based on official data and statistics issued by the relevant ministries. Where he used a set of standard methods and was the most important. Stability test (Extended Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips-Peyron test), cointegration test of the error-correction model, and the autoregressive distributed delay (ARDL) model test, so the results of this axis were the existence of a relationship between the quantities of production of strategic winter agricultural crops and the variables affecting them. As for future expectations, the study showed that the quantities of wheat production are heading towards an increase, while the barley crop is heading towards a decrease, which necessitated focusing on recommendations, the most important of which are: It is if we want to increase the volume of crop production, we have to control and control these factors now and in the future, in addition to the state’s support for farms by providing agricultural production requirements and manufacturing them locally and preventing their import from abroad, and using modern and advanced methods of agricultural machinery and equipment that would raise the production of strategic agricultural crops winter.